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THE "START BIG" APPROACH: If you're not sure where to begin, start with the basic assumption that there are 270 million people in the U.S. (or 25 million businesses, depending on the question). If there are 270 million people in the United States, perhaps half of them live in houses (or 135 million people). The average family size is about three people, so there would be 45 million houses in the United States. Let's add another 10 percent to that for second houses and houses used for other purposes besides residential. So there are about 50 million houses.
If houses are painted every 10 years, on average (notice how we deftly make that number easy to work with), then there are 5 million houses painted every year. Assuming that one gallon of paint covers 100 square feet of wall, and that the average house has 2,000 square feet of wall to cover, then each house needs 20 gallons of paint. So 100 million gallons of paint are sold per year (5 million houses x 20 gallons). (Note: If you want to be fancy, you can ask your interviewer whether you should include inner walls as well!) If 80 percent of all houses are white, then 80 million gallons of white house paint are sold each year. (Don't forget that last step!)
(more of this guesstimate on the next page)~
THE "START SMALL" APPROACH: You could also start small, and take a town of 27,000 (about 1/10,000 of the population). If you use the same assumption that half the town lives in houses in groups of three, then there are 4,500 houses, plus another 10 percent, then there are really 5,000 houses to worry about. Painted every 10 years, 500 houses are being painted in any given year. If each house has 2,000 square feet of wall, and each gallon of paint covers 100 square feet, then each house needs 20 gallons - and so 10,000 gallons of house paint are sold each year in your typical town. Perhaps 8,000 of those are white. Multiply by 10,000 - you have 80 million gallons.
Your interviewer may then ask you how you would actually get that number, on the job, if necessary. Use your creativity - contacting major paint producers would be smart, putting in a call to HUD's statistics arm could help, or even conducting a small sample of the second calculation in a few representative towns is possible.~ 2. What is the size of the market for disposable diapers in China?
Here's a good example of a market sizing. How many people live in China? A billion. Because the population of China is young, a full 600 million of those inhabitants might be of child-bearing age. Half are women, so there are about 300 million Chinese women of childbearing age. Now, the average family size in China is restricted, so it might be 1.5 children, on average, per family. Let's say two-thirds of Chinese women have children. That means that there are about 200 million children in China. How many of those kids are under the age of two? About a tenth, or 20 million. So there are at least 20 million possible consumers of disposable diapers.
1 billion people x 60% childbearing age = 600,000,000 people
600,000,000 people x 1/2 are women = 300,000,000 women of childbearing age
300,000,000 women x 2/3 have children = 200,000,000 women with children
200,000,000 women x 1.5 children each = 300,000,000 children
300,000,000 children x 1/10 under age 2 = 30 million
~3. How many square feet of pizza are eaten in the United States each month?
Take your figure of 300 million people in America. How many people eat pizza? Let's say 200 million. Now let's say the average pizza-eating person eats pizza twice a month, and eats two slices at a time. That's four slices a month. If the average slice of pizza is perhaps six inches at the base and 10 inches long, then the slice is 30 square inches of pizza. So four pizza slices would be 120 square inches. Therefore, there are a billion square feet of pizza eaten every month.
300 million people in America
200 million eat pizza
Average slice of pizza is six inches at the base and 10 inches long = 30 square inches (height x half the base)
Average American eats four slices of pizza a month
Four pieces x 30 square inches = 120 square inches (one square foot is 144 inches), so let's assume one square foot per person
200 million square feet a month~4. How would you estimate the weight of the Chrysler building?
This is a process guesstimate - the interviewer wants to know if you know what questions to ask. First, you would find out the dimensions of the building (height, weight, depth). This will allow you to determine the volume of the building. Does it taper at the top? (Yes.) Then, you need to estimate the composition of the Chrysler building. Is it mostly steel? Concrete? How much would those components weigh per square inch? Remember the extra step - find out whether you're considering the building totally empty or with office furniture, people, etc.? (If you're including the contents, you might have to add 20 percent or so to the building's weight.)
5. Why are manhole covers round?
The classic brainteaser, straight to you via Microsoft (the originator). Even though this question has been around for years, interviewees still encounter it.
Here's how to "solve" this brainteaser. Remember to speak and reason out loud while solving this brainteaser!
Why are manhole covers round? Could there be a structural reason? Why aren't manhole covers square? It would make it harder to fit with a cover. You'd have to rotate it exactly the right way. So many manhole covers are round because they don't need to be rotated. There are no corners to deal with. Also, a round manhole cover won't fall into a hole because it was rotated the wrong way, so it's safer.
Looking at this, it seems corners are a problem. You can't cut yourself on a round manhole cover. And because it's round, it can be more easily transported. One person can roll it.
6. If you look at a clock and the time is 3:15, what is the angle between the hourand the minute hands?
The answer to this is not zero! The hour hand, remember, moves as well. The hour hand moves a quarter of the way between three and four, so it moves a quarter of a twelfth (1/48) of 360 degrees. So the answer is seven and a half degrees, to be exact.
7. You have a five-gallon jug and a three-gallon jug. You must obtain exactly four gallons of water. How will you do it?
You should find this brainteaser fairly simple. If you were to think out loud, you might begin by examining the ways in which combinations of five and three can come up to be four. For example: (5 - 3) + (5 - 3) = 4. This path does not actually lead to the right answer, but it is a fruitful way to begin thinking about the question. Here's the solution: fill the three-gallon jug with water and pour it into the five-gallon jug. Repeat. Because you can only put two more gallons into the five-gallon jug, one gallon will be left over in the three-gallon jug. Empty out the five-gallon jug and pour in the one gallon. Now just fill the three-gallon jug again and pour it into the five-gallon jug. Ta-da. (Mathematically, this can be represented 3 + 3 - 5 + 3 = 4) ~8. You have 12 balls. All of them are identical except one, which is either heavier or lighter than the rest. The odd ball is either hollow while the rest are solid, or solid while the rest are hollow. You have a scale, and are permitted three weighings. Can you identify the odd ball, and determine whether it is hollow or solid?
This is a pretty complex question, and there are actually multiple solutions. First, we'll examine what thought processes an interviewer is looking for, and then we'll discuss one solution.
Start with the simplest of observations. The number of balls you weigh against each other must be equal. Yeah, it's obvious, but why? Because if you weigh, say three balls against five, you are not receiving any information. In a problem like this, you are trying to receive as much information as possible with each weighing.
For example, one of the first mistakes people make when examining this problem is that they believe the first weighing should involve all of the balls (six against six). This weighing involves all of the balls, but what type of information does this give you? It actually gives you no new information. You already know that one of the sides will be heavier than the other, and by weighing six against six, you will simply confirm this knowledge. Still, you want to gain information about as many balls as possible (so weighing one against one is obviously not a good idea). Thus the best first weighing is four against four.
Secondly, if you think through this problem long enough, you will realize how precious the information gained from a weighing is: You need to transfer virtually every piece of information you have gained from one weighing to the next. Say you weigh four against four, and the scale balances. Lucky you! Now you know that the odd ball is one of the unweighed four. But don't give into the impulse to simply work with those balls. In this weighing, you've also learned that the eight balls on the scale are normal. Try to use this information.
Finally, remember to use your creativity. Most people who work through this problem consider only weighing a number of balls against each other, and then taking another set and weighing them, etc. This won't do. There are a number of other types of moves you can make - you can rotate the balls from one scale to another, you can switch the balls, etc.
Let's look at one solution:
(more of this brainteaser on next page)~For simplicity's sake, we will refer to one side of the scale as Side A, and the other as Side B.
Step 1: Weigh four balls against four others.
Case A: If, on the first weighing, the balls balance
If the balls in our first weighing balance we know the odd ball is one of those not weighed, but we don't know whether it is heavy or light. How can we gain this information easily? We can weigh them against the balls we know to be normal. So:
Step 2 (for Case A): Put three of the unweighed balls on the Side A; put three balls that are known to be normal on Side B.
Step 3a (for Case A): Weigh the final unweighed ball (the odd one) against one of the normal balls. With this weighing, we determine whether the odd ball is heavy or light.
Step 3b (for Case A): Weigh one of the balls from the group of three against another one. If the scale balances, the ball from the group of three that was unweighed is the odd ball, and is heavy. If the scale tilts, we can identify the odd ball, because we know it is heavier than the other. (If the scale had tipped to Side B, we would use the same logical process, using the knowledge that the odd ball is light.)
II. If the scale tilts to the other side, so that Side B is now the heavy side, we know that one of the three balls moved from Side A to Side B is the odd ball, and that it is heavy. We proceed with the third weighing as described in step 3b in Case A.
III.If the scale remains the same, we know that one of the two balls on the scale that was not shifted in our second weighing is the odd ball. We also know that the unmoved ball from Side A is heavier than the unmoved ball on Side B (though we don't know whether the odd ball is heavy or light).
Step 3 (for Case B): Weigh the ball from Side A against a normal ball. If the scale balances, the ball from Side B is the odd one, and is light. If the scale does not balance, the ball from Side A is the odd one, and is heavy.
~9. You are faced with two doors. One door leads to your job offer (that's the one you want!), and the other leads to the exit. In front of each door is a guard. One guard always tells the truth. The other always lies. You can ask one question to decide which door is the correct one. What will you ask?
The way to logically attack this question is to ask how you can construct a question that provides the same answer (either a true statement or a lie), no matter who you ask.
There are two simple answers. Ask a guard: "If I were to ask you if this door were the correct one, what would you say?" The truthful consultant would answer yes (if it's the correct one), or no (if it's not). Now take the lying consultant. If you asked the liar if the correct door is the right way, he would answer no. But if you ask him: "If I were to ask you if this door were the correct one, what would you say," he would be forced to lie about how he would answer, and say yes. Alternately, ask a guard: "If I were to ask the other guard which way is correct, what would he say?" Here, the truthful guard would tell you the wrong way (because he is truthfully reporting what the liar would say), while the lying guard would also tell you the wrong way (because he is lying about what the truthful guard would say).
If you want to think of this question more mathematically, think of lying as represented by -1, and telling the truth as represented by +1. The first solution provides you with a consistently truthful answer because (-1)(-1) = 1, while (1)(1) = 1. The second solution provides you with a consistently false answer because (1)(-1) = -1, and (-1)(1) = -1.
10. A company has 10 machines that produce gold coins. One of the machines is producing coins that are a gram light. How do you tell which machine is making the defective coins with only one weighing?
Think this through - clearly, every machine will have to produce a sample coin or coins, and you must weigh all these coins together. How can you somehow indicate which coins came from which machine? The best way to do it is to have every machine crank a different number of coins, so that machine 1 will make one coin, machine 2 will make two coins, and so on. Take all the coins, weigh them together, and consider their weight against the total theoretical weight. If you're four grams short, for example, you'll know that machine 4 is defective.
11. The four members of U2 (Bono, the Edge, Larry and Adam) need to get across a narrow bridge to play a concert. Since it's dark, a flashlight is required to cross, but the band has only one flashlight, and only two people can cross the bridge at a time. (This is not to say, of course, that if one of the members of the band has crossed the bridge, he can't come back by himself with the flashlight.) Adam takes only a minute to get across, Larry takes two minutes, the Edge takes five minutes, and slowpoke Bono takes 10 minutes. A pair can only go as fast as the slowest member. They have 17 minutes to get across. How should they do it?
The key to attacking this question is to understand that Bono and the Edge are major liabilities and must be grouped together. In other words, if you sent them across separately, you'd already be using 15 minutes. This won't do.What does this mean? That Bono and the Edge must go across together. But they can not be the first pair (or one of them will have to transport the flashlight back).
Instead, you send Larry and Adam over first, taking two minutes. Adam comes back, taking another minute, for a total of three minutes. Bono and the Edge then go over, taking 10 minutes, and bringing the total to 13. Larry comes back, taking another two minutes, for a total of 15. Adam and Larry go back over, bringing the total time to 17 minutes.
~12. What is the decimal equivalent of 3/16 and 7/16?
A commonly-used Wall Street interview question, this one isn't just an attempt to stress you out or see how quick your mind works. This question also has practical banking applications. Stocks often are traded at prices reported in 1/16s of a dollar. (Each 1/16 = .0625, so 3/16 = .1875 and 7/16 = .4375).
13. What is the sum of the numbers from one to 50?
Another question that recent analyst hires often report receiving. This is a relatively easy one: pair up the numbers into groups of 51 (1 + 50 = 51; 2 + 49 = 51; etc.). Twenty-five pairs of 51 equals 1275.
14. You have a painting that is $320 that is selling for 20 percent off. How much is the discounted price?
Calculate quickly: What's 80 percent of $320? The answer's $256. Even in a question like this, if you are good with numbers and use shortcuts, don't be afraid to talk aloud. For example: 80 percent of $320 can be broken down to a calculation like 80 percent of $80 x $4, or 162. ~15. You're playing three-card monte. Two cards are red, one is black. (Note: In three-card monte, the three cards are face down and you try to pick the black card in order to win.) You pick the middle card. After you pick, the dealer shows that one of the cards you have not chosen is red. You are given the chance to switch your selection. Should you?
The short answer is yes. By switching, you are betting that the card you initially chose was red. By not switching, you are betting that the card you initially chose was black. And because two out of three cards are red, of course, betting on red is the way to go.
Let's break it down, starting with the not switching case. Say the first card you chose was the black one. This happens one-third of the time. If you do not switch your choice, you win. Needless to say, the other two-thirds of the time, having picked a red card, and deciding not to switch, you lose. In other words, if you do not switch, you win a third of the time.
Now let's examine what happens when you switch cards. Say the first card you chose was the black one. Again, this would happen one-third of the time. If, after being shown a red card, you switch, you lose. The other two-thirds of the time, if you switch, you win because the dealer has already shown you that one of the cards you did not pick is red. Given the premise that your original pick was a red card, the card you are switching to must be the black one. You will win two-thirds of the time.
16. A straight flush beats a four-of-a-kind in poker because it is more unlikely. But think about how many straight flushes there are - if you don't count wraparound straights, you can have a straight flush starting on any card from two to 10 in any suit (nine per suit). That means there are 36 straight flushes possible. But how many four of a kinds are there - only 13. What's wrong with this reasoning?
Immediately, you should think about what the difference is between a straight flush and a four-of-a-kind. One involves five cards, and the other involves four. Intuitively, that's what should strike you as the problem with the line of reasoning. Look closer and you'll see what that means: for every four of a kind, there are actually a whole bunch of five-card hands: 48 (52 - 4) in fact. There are actually 624 (48 x 13) of them in all.
17. If you have seven white socks and nine black socks in a drawer, how many do you have to pull out blindly in order to ensure that you have a matching pair?
Three. Let's see - if the first one is one color, and the second one is the other color, the third one, no matter what the color, will make a matching pair. Sometimes you're not supposed to think that hard.
~18. Tell me a good joke that is neither sexist nor racist.
If you can't think of any, you're in the same boat as the unfortunately tongue-tied recent candidate at Salomon Smith Barney. Find one and remember it.
19. If I were to fill this room with pennies, how many pennies would fit in?
A literally in-your-face guesstimate.
20. Say you are driving on a one-mile track. You do one lap at 30 miles an hour. How fast do you have to go to average 60 miles an hour?
This is something of a trick question, and was recently received by a Goldman candidate. The first thought of many people is to say 90 miles an hour, but consider: If you have done a lap at 30 miles an hour, you have already taken two minutes. Two minutes is the total amount of time you would have to take in order to average 60 miles an hour. Therefore, you can not average 60 miles an hour over the two laps.
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