My theory is that since its down to a handful of people voting is more concentrated. Constantine and Bo essential split the rocker vote and Bo's performance was better. SO its like having 2 people from the same movie nominated in the same category..they usually split the votes and some one else unexpectedly wins.
Also as much as i think he is right most of the time there is a SIMON backlash. Last year with the Hawaiian girl he said every person in hawaii better vote for you or else your gone...and sure enough she somehow survived. Once he told scott tuesday to pack your suitcase..the votes came pouring in.
there is no question that scott was by far the worst of the bunch tuesday...he needs to go.