| Topic Name: |
When side-jobs hurt your chances.. |
| Message Name: |
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| Date Posted: |
08/24/2004 |
| In Reply To: |
CONTD from first thread.
(john: http://www.bls.gov/webapps/legacy/cpsatab 12.htm and click on U-6 not seasonally adjusted...)
that number is actually higher than the LAT's figure of 9.7 for all of 2003. BLS shows 10.1
(john: No shit! Congratulations! This is the reason they have higher unemployment. It??s not some
massive worldwide conspiracy to keep Bush in office. Its structural reasons that exist in various
countries such as Europe??s labor law vs. the US. The normative discussion we can have about the
pros and cons of these distinctions would be quite long as there are economists that dedicate
their careers to it.)
no, that connection does not exist. in discussing why france experienced 20 percent drop since
1970, and why the usa rose 20 percent is not about unemployment.... france (has used) a 35 hour
work week. in the usa it is --- as high as the corporation demands of the employee(s).
(john: By your logic you never were counted since as I keep repeating unemployment benefits don??t
mean anything to the BLS. The headline number that is posted in France is the same basic definition as
the US number. They use a survey just as in the US.)
by this logic, i've never been counted at all because i am not on the household survey. neither is my family...
or extended family... neither are any of my friends... and i'll bet neither are you. minus you, i count 117
households that i am intimate with. no survey...accurate? paint an equal picture of the entire
economy? enough to say everyone is back to work?
USpop: 281,000,000 (+)
households: 105,000,000 (+)
what you are saying is that 60,000 (if indeed we buy that higher number is consistent, BLS does not
confirm consistency only estimates ) is enough of a sample out of all households to accurately
gauge the unemployment rate. 60 / 105000
i say no. it is not accurate to based an entire federal policy, benefits program, unemployment
program, retraining program, or political ideology and argumentation upon these numbers.
fair to apply the same estimates to our GNP? trade deficit? military spending with contracting
service companies? your ID says "banker" is this is how banking business works today, by
estimating one or two accounts for all?
--end--
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??france (has used) a 35 hour work week.??
Yes, this does help to explain unemployment in France compared to the US. The labor laws in much of Europe are the exact reason why they have a higher unemployment rate. Do me a favor and take an intro to macroeconomics class.
??no survey...accurate? paint an equal picture of the entire
economy? enough to say everyone is back to work??
Yes, it does. And no it doesn??t say that everyone is back to work, see above.
??what you are saying is that 60,000 (if indeed we buy that higher number is consistent, BLS does not
confirm consistency only estimates ) is enough of a sample out of all households to accurately
gauge the unemployment rate. 60 / 105000??
That is exactly what I??m saying. I would give you the statistical equation to calculate the error rate for a sample size of that large (I??m sure it??s also on BLS somewhere) but I doubt you would be able to see beyond what you want to see.
??fair to apply the same estimates to our GNP? trade deficit? military spending with contracting
service companies? your ID says "banker" is this is how banking business works today, by
estimating one or two accounts for all???
Absolutely. The use of statistics such as this is a prerequisite for any modern job in high finance (I??m not a commercial banker??). Trillions of dollars are traded each day in the world??s financial markets based on statistics/econometrics/etc. To attempt to plug in all the economic data that I would like an exact numbers for would take more computing power then the human race has created and probably will in my life time
I didn??t read through this post so if there are sentences that don??t make sense please let me know and I??ll clarify.
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