| Topic Name: |
Financial Models |
| Message Name: |
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| Date Posted: |
09/11/2003 |
| In Reply To: |
My plan since I am looking for exposure to this business and it does not seem to be going as expected is to start a mock portfolio and Index.
This topic is very interesting as I have seen a great difference between the methods of valuation used by analyst and the kind taught in school. I will elaborate after finishing the book Security analysis. I would like to use Cash flow in addition to sales and earnings, as CF tells what the company is doing with money and how it handles that. I look at it from a very micro level. Whose more wealthy and has better long time fiscal prominence. A guy who is on the fast track starting now making 100 k but leaving on a credit card budget with debt/expenses and consumption rising higher than his income. Or would you prefer someone who has stable income of 50-70K but lives reasonably and free cash flow(like retirement income and savings) increases at a higher rate than debt/ expenses. Maybe wrong but I am just outta school and that is the kind of approach I want to take to valuing businesses(although I understand they are more complex). |
| Message: |
ill add im trying to get in as well.
you are obviously value like me, but i like to use timing, newsflow analysis and so on, not just say this is cheap so ill buy. i say this is cheap, this is my target, and when this happens it will move. or it is moving and looks like isnt not noise.
i didnt get much from SA. I prefer phil fisher, and the appendix in intelligent investor with buffets letters to get the gist of value.
do the cfa as well, this december if you can. but last registrations are in a few days...
i know this l/s analyst who uses complex excel models, but for me it bs, bacause as a value person you can see a wide misvaluation by looking at the figures almost precusorily, and its not worth considering stocks that arent hugely out of line. in my view.
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