| Topic Name: |
CMT |
| Message Name: |
yeah, sure, whatever |
| Date Posted: |
07/31/2001 |
| In Reply To: |
Hi agorelik,
It seems like you are a designated writer by vault on this board. You are suppose to be an expert isn't it?
Talking about Andrew Lo, I have been his student in the past and know personally what he thinks. So don't try to suppose "I will talk to him".
Also you mentioned that I have lot of useless certifications what is useless MBA, CFA or CPA????? Just that I can learn from the "Expert".
TA is not a perfect science at this time agreed. When the force of Gravity was not proved people were still droping objects from the height expecting it to fall. Similarly there lot of stuff that TA talks about needs scientic proof. But it doen't mean that it dosen't exist.
Prof. Charles Lee of Cornell suggests using fundamental analysis to pick stocks and then trade them based to TA indicators (Especially Momentum indicator) the time horizon of the momentum trades should be less then 9 monts. OK if fundamental is all that matters then why the stock moves every hour does the fundametals of the company change every hour.
Economics and trading is all about demand and supply, the underlying value doesn't matter especially in short term. TA is not about patterns TA is about finding the balance of demand and supply looking at the trend and volume (both reflect demand-supply move and weight with which it is moving).
The popular press has given bad name to TA because lot of amateure get in the field and claim they are masters of TA. Some one mentioned that there are far less jobs for TA compared to FA in mutual fund complex. Agree completely. But the fact that there are some if any position of TA in a mutual fund complex suggests that money managers are using it...
Come on don't give you opinion based on popular beliefs do your own research... |
| Message: |
Your CPA doesn't add much value. The CMT is a negative. Two useless certs. right there.
TA is not just not a perfect science. It's not a science. Hoping that eventually, one day, TA will be proved by science is illogical. Since the basis of TA is unscientific, while some claims of TA might eventually be recognized by science is irrelevant, since it will be a science, with a different set of assumptions and rules than TA, that shows that, by accident, a few of TA's claims are correct. Most of TA's claims will be proven either untestable, inconclusive, irrelevant or openly wrong.
"Economics and trading is all about demand and supply, the underlying value doesn't matter especially in short term. TA is not about patterns TA is about finding the balance of demand and supply looking at the trend and volume (both reflect demand-supply move and weight with which it is moving)."
Ok, then why do so many TA analysts use the freaking patterns then? Something doesn't make sense there.
"Some one mentioned that there are far less jobs for TA compared to FA in mutual fund complex. Agree completely. But the fact that there are some if any position of TA in a mutual fund complex suggests that money managers are using it"
No, not really. I've found that usually someone is hired to be a trader or quant analyst and then gets into TA, but are hired for their experience on a trading desk or in quant stuff. So, people being hired as TA analysts? Very, very few. Probably less than 1 in 500 are being hired as TA analysts exclusively.
You can take a look at, for example, AIMR and the MTA (Market Technicians Association) or TSAASF (Technical Securities Analysts of San Francisco). When I go to the regional chapter of AIMR (the SASF) I meet people from American Century, Alliance Cap, Wells Cap, Franky Temp, Dodge & Cox, Fremont Group, good VC shops, and etc every time. People running billions or hundreds of millions. The board of the SASF has execs (some well up on the totem pole too) from Franky Temp, Dodge & Cox, Barclays BGI, Weiss Peck Greer, American Century (ie, all running tens to hundreds of billions). While the TSAASF has on its current board a guy from Schwab (who knows what Jim Forte does there anyway), a broker from Merrill, a prof at a night school, and a few other random people. To tell the truth, I don't know if the whole TSAASF membership has responsibility for more than a few hundred million at most (maybe a billion max for the entire group of over 100). I don't know, which one would I rather join eh?
alex
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