Unemployment Rate Falls to 10 Percent. Vault Readers Call It

by SixFigureStart | December 04, 2009

  • My Vault
Is this the inflection point? Unemployment is back down to 10 percent (0.2 percent lower than last month), with a mere 11,000 jobs evaporating from the economy in November. Or is it just evidence that seasonal hiring is offsetting the general job market malaise?

Whichever, we'll take it for now. The job shrinkage figure is the lowest since December 2007—the month the recession officially began. And, after watching the figure climb for so long, even a plateau would have been welcome this month. A fall, then—however modest—is all the more welcome.

It’s important, however, not to read too much into the figure at this stage. As the graph below shows, slight corrections aren't unheard of in this recession—indeed, we last saw one as recently as July, only to see a spike the following month.

By the way, the poll we conducted on jobseeker sentiment back in November suggested that the market was either plateauing or getting easier. I'd love to take the credit on being proved right, but the poll didn't reflect my opinion—it reflected the opinions of Vault readers, so take a collective bow for your finger-on-the-pulsiness.

-Posted by Phil Stott, Vault.com

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